Thursday, November 01, 2007

Acceleration: Sacramento's Median Asking Price Plunges 18.8% YoY

[Update: added graphs]

Housing Tracker, median asking price: $300,000

Change from last year: -18.8% [-$69,500]



Change from Aug '05: -25.0% [-$99,900]


Compare to other price measurements here.

From the Appeal Democrat:

A real estate information service says that more houses started slipping into foreclosure last quarter statewide. For Yuba-Sutter, it’s a possible indicator that more people may lose their homes. According to figures released last week by DataQuick Information Systems, Yuba, Sutter and Colusa counties showed default-notice increases above 100 percent, with Yuba County experiencing a 244 percent jump, from 66 to 227.
...
Andrew LePage, a DataQuick analyst, said there’s no sign that the foreclosure problems are turning the corner, especially when combined with a slow housing market and a homebuyers’ credit crunch. “If the notices of default are still climbing, you can bet more people will lose their homes to foreclosure,” said LePage.
From the Redding Record-Searchlight:

Homes lost to foreclosure in Shasta County increased 562 percent — from 37 to 245 — in the first three quarters of 2007 from a year ago, county records show. And it could get worse before it gets better. Rates on some 2 million adjustable rate mortgages nationwide are scheduled to reset by the end of next year.
...
Homeowners facing the possibility of foreclosure now need to act quickly, at least one expert said Wednesday. “If you have any equity, you should sell your house and downsize before you lose it to foreclosure,” said Alexis McGee, co-founder and president of Foreclosures.com, a Sacramento database that tracks foreclosure activity nationwide.
...
“I think it’s a typical down cycle, but I think it’s relative to the last up cycle,” Van Bockern [who conducts public foreclosure auctions] said of the market. “Houses appreciated much faster, so just the opposite is going to happen. It will cut farther and deeper.”
Realty Trac foreclosure map

From the Modesto Bee:
Whoever takes the open Modesto City Council seats up for grabs in Tuesday's election won't be labeled a developer's puppet -- at least not because of any conspicuous campaign contributions. For the most part, builders are staying on the sidelines for this election, campaign finance records show.

A couple of factors likely are keeping development money out of the races, candidates and builders say. Among them:

A shortage of candidates created a field that doesn't rely on much campaign money, and that doesn't encourage people to contribute to a race.

A severe downturn in the housing market left deep-pocketed developers with tight political budgets.

Growth isn't the top issue of the political season for the first time in recent memory.

"Uninspiring races, slow time for housing, probably all of the above," said Steve Madison, executive director of the Central California Building Industry Association.

That's a shift from last year, when developers contributed more than $100,000 to races for seats on the Stanislaus County Board of Supervisors.
...
"The presence of developers never goes away," [candidate Robert] Farrace said. "They have an interest and they have a right to participate in community activity as well. The thing right now is, the growth issue is less of an issue because the market is in the tank."

18 comments:

srcerer said...

What is the difference between the old data and the new data?
http://www.housingtracker.net/old_housingtracker/location/California/Sacramento/
http://www.housingtracker.net/askingprices/metro/California/Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville/

Which is more correct?
Is there a way to get this broken down by zip code?

Gwynster said...

not on housingtracker as he compiles data nationally. If you need to know info at the zip level, ask here and about a dozen of us "experts" will give you the scoop or can send you in the right direction.

Or if you are lucky, Max or Agent will answer and you won't need us.

srcerer said...

gwynster,

Well my favorite zip codes are 95864, 95819, and 95816.
Though I'm open to suggestions, I need to be near the 50 corridor to be close to work.

BTW I've been lurking here a while, and I noticed you're in the Davis area. I finished high school there. While I really enjoyed it (as apposed to having stayed in Redding), I think you're right about them needing to lose the 'tude ;)

anon1137 said...

Thanks for posting the link to the foreclosure map, Lander. I was looking all over for that.

I'm surprised that Connecticut is a foreclosure hot spot. I would have guessed that all those hedge fund employees would be able to manage their personal finances.

Patient Renter said...

Holy crap, is this legit? Them's some big numbers.

Sippn said...

srcerer - try this on Average Buyer

http://averagebuyer.blogspot.com/2007/09/months-inventory-by-zip-for-augsep.html

You've got high price tastes in low inventory areas!

srcerer said...

So my $640,000 question (damn inflation) is:

Will those zip codes be significantly down over the next year or two?

It would seem they are being affected.
I've been following Average Buyer's (tip o the hat) stats ever since she started posting them.
Those zip codes may not have a lot of inventory, but it does seem like it's been on the rise.
Though the asking prices especially in 95864 are very stubborn.

So what do you guys think, is there a chance for that stuff to get down in the 350,000 range?

Here's some sample MLS numbers:
70098649
70074115
70100454
70073747
70103700

I use zillow to filter out listings where they were sold for too much, or the property taxes aren't low enough to indicate there's room to negotiate. Though I have no way of knowing if they've ATM'd it to death.

anon1137 said...

Hello srcerer. I've been tracking 95814, -16, and -19 for the last couple years. I posted on 10/18 (http://sacramentolanding.blogspot.com/2007/10/sacramento-real-estate-market-charts.html) that I thought the stubbornly high prices in midtown/East Sac were finally starting to break, and might be down as much as 10% from the peak (your mileage may vary).

How low they will go is anyone's guess. Factors pushing them down are the same ones affecting other areas, like prices that outpaced wages and more stringent lending standards that removed many stupid, I mean 1st time buyers. Factors supporting them would include the expansion of the medical centers in the area and the amount of remodeling and general refurbishment that is happening to many of the properties.

Of course, if the police keep blowing people's heads off in the neighborhood pharmacy, that might put additional downward pressure on prices.

Lander said...

What is the difference between the old data and the new data? Which is more correct?

The newer data covers a wider area than the older data. (Note the higher inventory figures.)

Diggin Deeper said...

As we begin to see acceleration in price declines YoY, I really believe we're early in the process. Perception continues to deteriorate and there are big issues on the national front that bear down on us locally.

Liquidity problems at our major financial institutions will pressure credit availability and tend to push interest rates higher in order to compensate for "unknown" losses hitting the books. Just yesterday, the Fed injected $48 Billion into the financial markets to further bailout big banks that are struggling to determine how to get out from under the toxic investments their own quantum-whiz kids developed.

The dollar continues to free fall, energy continues to rise, and inflation looms large as the Fed continues its fight to hold things together on the financial front.

So it's not surprising that prices continue to fall. Until we wash out this subprime mess, anyone buying today is buying risk, imho. We've been duped into believing that easy credit meant generous rewards. That was yesterday, today we see what that really meant.

Gwynster said...

1137,

I saw that! That was my old drugstore.

Honestly, the crime and freak elements are going to get worse even in what we think of as great neighborhoods. I lived in midtown from 93 to 03 and let me tell you, I've seen it all. 95814 and 95816 aren't as resistant to the effects of a shrinking economy as people think it is.

BTW, the fires off 24th should be looked at. I know those houses and that area used to be one of the worst for break ins and drugs in the square.

anon1137 said...

Gw - no doubt, there are some unsavory elements in that area, and every once in awhile one of them goes off. Besides the homeless, if you run a Megan's Law map of the area, it lights up like a xmas tree! But having lived around both, I'd take the homeless any day over unsupervised kids and teenagers from the typical stucco subdivision.

Re: the fire, I think the Bee said it was started by disposal of hot ashes in a garbabge can by an occupant of one of the houses.

Gwynster said...

The comment on the Medhan's law map is priceless! Sac was a big dumping spot of sex offenders for years. Now they try to reintroduce them into the wild in Redding.

Those crappy 3 in a row houses on P are tiny and have big structual issues that the seller have just painted over. I rememeber when they couldn't sell them for 69K in 98. The apartments across the street were well known as drug haven and last time I was there, the surrounding historical homes were turned into rentals and falling apart badly.

I lived a few doors down from Naked Coffee. I remember the explosion from when Angelo tried fire the building to get around the historical status. I call BS on the ashes story.

Mid and downtown is a mixed bag. You really need to get to know the areas well. While I still old neighborhoods, I would never live there again without a garage to keep the car in and an alarm system on the house.

anon1137 said...

That's interesting about the fire. I wonder if we'll be seeing more of those before values drop much further in midtown?

Gwynster said...

Lots of old wiring and dryrot in those homes. People were just slapping pottery barn paint on the interiors and markeing them up 200%. When it comes to accidents near poverty heights, needle alley (near N street), or Alkalii flats; I'm instantly suspious.

TJ4321 said...

The GOOD news is that Sacramento won't get stuck with those two ugly Libeskind buildings. I don't know how this jerk gets developers to listen to his stupid ideas. Have any of you seen Libeskind's book of "poetry"? Really, Danny wrote a book called Fishing From The Pavement. There's a lot about urine and feces in it. He seems fascinated by that stuff. Be glad you did not shake hands with him!!!

SheWrestles said...

I'm surprised that Connecticut is a foreclosure hot spot. I would have guessed that all those hedge fund employees would be able to manage their personal finances.

The rash of foreclosures in CT is similar to the one in CO...affecting primarily people on the lower income tiers as opposed to those in the middle who attempted to buy too much.

At the end of the day, though, we ALL pay whether we like it or not.

smf said...

"Lots of old wiring and dryrot in those homes."

You have no idea...

I have seen things that were just bizarre, not just construction wise, but in an architectural sense.

There were a lot of amateurs in the market.

One case in point. Someone builds a house in EDH with a great view. They forgot one thing:

Balconies.