Friday, November 02, 2007

Paquin Predicts Sales Bottom for 2008

From the Sacramento Bee:

The prediction season is here. On Thursday, Greg Paquin, president of the Folsom-based Gregory Group, told capital- area home builders that they can expect to sell 7,710 new homes next year in El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento, Sutter, Yolo and Yuba counties. That compares with expectations of 8,116 homes this year, he said. Builders had almost 9,600 sales last year.

Paquin believes the average price of a new home – $404,689 this year – will fall to $374,337 next year. His good news: Builders will find a bottom in 2008. "With the spring sales season of 2009, you will start to see some positive movement in sales rates," he told a gathering of the North State Building Industry Association.
Some of Paquin's recent predictions:
"Maybe this is the bottom," Paquin said. (Sacramento Bee, January 2007)

[Reality: Maybe not]

"I would suggest on the new-home side that we haven't reached the bottom point yet, and I'm optimistic we will in 2007. ... I think next year is going to be very similar to this year. I don't necessarily think it's going to go down a whole lot more. I think new-home sales are going to be relatively the same as this year." (Sacramento Bee, December 2006)

Folsom-based home-builder consultant Greg Paquin has predicted sales of 9,500 to 10,000 new homes in 2007. (Sacramento Bee, December 2006)

[Reality: 6,087 sales YTD, Q3 2007]

Paquin's view is that the boom may be over, but the basic strengths of the market will allow for a soft landing. He and others call it a normal market. He predicted that sales in 2006 will be even with or slightly less than the 14,094 homes sold last year. (Sacarmento Business Journal, April 2006)

[Reality: 9,588 sales in 2006]
Via the North State Building Industry Association:

16 comments:

Diggin Deeper said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Diggin Deeper said...

Keep calling bottoms and some year you'll find one. Anyone know how many new homes are available and complete, today, and how many are under construction in greater Sac area? It's probably close to his predicted sales volume for all of '08. Therefore Pacquin might NOT get a chanc to build homes until sometime in '09.

Bakersfield Bubble said...

Lander you rock!!!

This guy has called bottom more than Linsday, Brittany and Paris combined.

smf said...

It means nothing whether the bottom will hit in 2008, 2009 or later.

What will happen after the bottom is another issue, and that is that no appreciation will occur for several years.

When I purchased in 1994, it took till 2000 for appreciation to kick in.

Patient Renter said...

I know Paquin has said a lot of stupid things over the past few years, but had joined the prestigious Bottom Callers club before now? I can't recall...

Let's see if we can remember this one and all call him names when he's proven wrong, again.

Professor Shays said...

An "ex" is a has been. A "pert" is a drip under pressure.

Paquin seems to fit that definition.

anon1137 said...

I agree with BB, Lander, you rock! Thanks for finding those old quotes.

Just goes to show how much the predictions of these so-called experts are worth. People have *no* integrity or credibility these days. What comes out of their mouth means absolutely nothing. The single most important thing, and this goes for so-called experts, for politicians, for doctors, lawyers, scientists, . . . and essentially anyone who offers an opinon, is this: WHERE DOES YOUR PAYCHECK COME FROM.

You can skip what they say because as soon as you know who pays their bills, you know what their opinion is.

Now why doesn't the Bee report those old quotes when they do a story? It definitely puts things in context.

SheWrestles said...

It's no secret that the sky is falling, but surely the depression is increased by the public's paranoia.

Everyone has a stake in increasing buyer confidence.

What the region needs is stability, with gentle ebbs and flows. Sacramento cannot really support frenzies and should be more resistant to them in the future.

HOUSE2008 said...

Bottom for who? Obviously not the builders. I went out to Elk Grove via Big Horn Blvd just yesterday to take a peak at a "new" developement that had several big name devlopers such as Morrison, Cambridge, Ryland, Tim Lewis ect. Well, every one of them was obviously pricing their homes to the 200k income bracket. What was funny is the development looked a LOT(no pun intended) like the Dunmore one that was recently pictured here. Pipes sticking out of the ground, empty lots, and most telling of all was that they only had the models put up. Nothing else. No buyers.

So with each stop I found myself in more expensive homes and further depressed. God Bless my wife who went along on the ride with me 6mo pregnant. She's put up with my "hyper" optimism and was laughing at the end cause I was getting depressed which of course made me laugh. Last stop for the day was Cresleigh Ranch Eagle II subdivision. WELL! I picked the highest one of them all with the exception of Cambridge Homes. The sales lady said they had a "special" on a two story for ready..$590,000! I said wow. I mean what else could I say? On the bright side one could be a renter with Countrywide financing that offered via their flyer 10year % only loan that came to $1600 a month or with P.I.T.I $1800. I thought that after TEN LOOONG years in a house onpaying % only you have nothing to look forward to as on would have 0 equity built up in the house but plent of neg. amor. Yikes I'm not making this up. Should have snaged the flyer. So anywho, the builders are NOT in the holiday giving mood just yet...Sorry for the rant. Oh and a Blue Ribbon mention to Woodside homes Heritage collection @ Bilby Ranch for making a decent home & being somewhat price competitive on their Heirloom Model. It's OK but still could use a 50-75k haircut. But not bad. Sorry for the rant...

Giacomo said...

Excellent work, Lander.

We need more of this; these "experts" need to have their noses rubbed in some of the "stuff" they've put out in the past.

Following anon1137's idea: why not send your assembled quotes directly to the Bee reporter who worked the recent story? Maybe it'll get picked up (it's entertaining as hell). At the very least it should give their consciences a pang next time they publish quotes from an industry shill.

brad said...

How's this for a prediction, I Predict Paquin will be "PACKIN" it in, in 2008, it's like Bill Murray said in What About Bob, If you Fake it, you dont have it.Sounds alot like a "Paquin prediction" doesn't it? Bottom in "08" good luck,

SheWrestles said...

Appraisal conspiracy lawsuit

SheWrestles said...

Lander - Would you be interested in having a regular message board attached to your blog?

I think that would actually enhance the current dialogue by making it easier to go from topic-to-topic.

Email me if you're interested.

shewrestles@aol.com

norcaljeff said...

I think little Jimmy Castro is Paquin's long lost twin.

Cow_tipping said...

Lereah ... Is that you ... good deal man, you're now Greg Paquin ... wink wink ... your secret safe with me wink wink.
Cool.
Cow_tipping.

Perfect Storm said...

“But Chris Thornberg, principal at Beacon Economics and a former UCLA professor, countered that buying now is folly. ‘What’s the point of buying today when you can buy it for 10 percent less in a year?’ Thornberg said. ‘For the life of me, I can’t figure out that logic.’”