Thursday, April 16, 2009

DataQuick: Sacramento Median Price Up From February

From the Sacramento Bee (updated article):

...[T]he median sales price for new and existing homes combined in Sacramento County rose for the first time in more than a year to $165,000, up $5,000 from February's median.
DataQuick numbers by county here. By zip here.

DataQuick figures for San Joaquin, Stanislaus, and Merced here (updated).

16 comments:

Buying Time said...

Housing Tracker is also showing the first asking price increases in almost 3 years for the Median an lower 25th percentile (the 75th had moved up during that time).

Husmanen said...

As the bottom washes out and the mid and top tiers are falling the median will increase.

The MSM should be all over this as a sign of the bottom, of course, ignoring all other fundamentals and the overall economy in general.

norcaljeff said...

Sucker's rally! Just like the stock market "rally" of late.

sacramentia said...

If you make money during a suckers rally does that still count or are you just a sucker?

Jacob said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Jacob said...

Jan
280000 | 176000 | -37%
270000 | 160000 | -41%
259000 | 165000 | -36%

But just cause prices go up month to month and price declnes go down year to year doen't mean the bottom is here. We can continue to lose less and less of a percent each month but we are still trending down.

I guess the big question is, will this current trend continue next month or is it just a blip and April will be back to bigger declines.

Diggin Deeper said...

This is what I've been saying for the last several months. If the entire market was still in freefall, the median would continue to drop month after month. The total number of homes on the market, and sold each month, favor the lower end by a wide margin, having more of a direct impact on the median price.

Since lower end prices appear to have stabilized, at least temporarily, mid to upper end homes are now giving their due. I believe the price per sq ft between the mid-upper levels will meet the lower end at some point (plus a slight premium for location, construction, amenties, etc.)

The bottom callers ought be out en masse very soon. But without explanation or understanding why the median will tend higher, it's a fantasy or lucky call at best.

Are we forming a bottom? Could be as long as the median price doesn't deteriorate from here.

The low end of the market could be considered "frenzied" right now...under normal economic coniditions one might even call it a buyer's market. Those that are trying to buy in this segment will confirm this.

But if smf is correct, there are just so many buyers competing for an inventory that has too many homes and not enough people to occupy them (renters included). This will either hold prices down for an extended period of time, or fuel another round of price cuts until the inventory is absorbed.

While the news is encouraging it really doesn't tell the whole story...yet

Diggin Deeper said...

"under normal economic coniditions one might even call it a buyer's market."

Correction:

under normal economic conditions one might even call it a seller's market"

Dave said...

Additionally, has anyone here seen "The Chart". This should give you a sense of where things may still be heading minus MAJOR govt intervention. http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2007/10/imf-mortgage-reset-chart.html

Some govt intervention, we all know, is occurring, but it's not going to be enough.

patient renter said...

If you make money during a suckers rally does that still count or are you just a sucker?You're only a sucker if you fail to realize that it's a sucker's really :)

Jacob said...

Yea even when it was common to blame sub prime and say the mess was contained people on the blogosphere knew that sub prime was not the only problem, just the first wave. And that the Alt-A and Option ARM waves would be the real problem.

And a problem for the banks / sellers of higher end homes, aside from the excess, is that there are fewer and fewer buyers as the prices go up. Especially above the conforming loan limits.

If you look at the 150-200k range of homes, sure there are a lot of buyers. This is because the median wage for the area is around 50k and with that you can afford a 150-200k home. Also that price range is (currently) working out as profitable for investors to rent out.

Now take the 500k home. You need to make around $150k a year to buy that and very few people are in that category. And the larger homes are not good for investors cause it is hard to impossible to rent them for profit.

norcaljeff said...

CA unemployment is now 11.2%. So much for a market recovery in 09! LOL

norcaljeff said...

If you make money during a suckers rally does that still count or are you just a sucker?You'll just be another sucker when the market tanks 15% later this year. Let us know how smart you are 12 weeks from now...

sacramentia said...

With the government changing the rules so fast right now in RE I don't think making money is a little smart and a lot of luck.

I just heard that all Fannie and Freddie purchases are going to require that you agree to not sell for more than 120% of purchase price for a year.

Diggin Deeper said...

"I just heard that all Fannie and Freddie purchases are going to require that you agree to not sell for more than 120% of purchase price for a year."

Best to pay cash...that leaves the Feds out of the picture at least temporarily.

norcaljeff said...

With the government changing the rules so fast right now in RE I don't think making money is a little smart and a lot of luck.Sac, I'll agree with you there. Things in this market are just nuts, but I'm still expecting a good drop within the next 5-6 weeks.