Thursday, January 06, 2011

Sacramento Real Estate Market - January 2011

Post off-topic links, observations, and stories about the Sacramento real estate market. Please read the comment policy before posting.


husmanen said...

HAPPY NEW YEAR everyone!!

Here is my shot at predictions for 2011 (no science involved ;- ):

House prices – Sacto : Bifurcated market. Lower end stabilizes/remains stable and the mid/upper end takes a minimum of 20% dip in median price as upper end (>$400k) shadow inventory begins to come to market.

Economic Recovery - CA/USA: CA slowly moving sideways, areas such as San Diego and the Bay Area recover faster than the rest. USA recovery is slow but continues no sharp increases, the months of losing >500k jobs per month, as in 2008, don’t return.

Jobs: Sacto jobs remain slow to increase but unemployment slightly reduces to 10.4% from 12.5% by end of year.

Rental Prices. Remain flat as incomes do not rise appreciatively and there are a plethora of homes to rent.

Interest Rates: Interest rates slowly creep up to nearly 6% by end of year.

Interest Rate Tax Deduction. Lots of political discussion but nothing changes.

Inflation. Starts to take off in summer and goes over 4% by end of year.

Gold. Bubble bursts, hits $600 per oz by Dec 2011.

Oil. Prices go down in spring and up in summer, down fall, up winter. Lather rinse repeat. Also, there will be some type of spike in summer based on market speculation and financial bets make by large traders.

Strength of US Dollar. Dollar strengthens against the Euro but not by more than 20%. Weakens against the Yuan by >20%.

Stock Market. Up/Down not sure, I guess by December 2011 there is an increase of only 5% - total WAG.

Personal House Purchase I will buy in 2011.

Lucky said...

House prices – Sacto : Prices are still on the decline...Hopefully they bottom out (4th quarter of 2011 at earliest)

Economic Recovery - CA/USA: The recovery in the rest of the USA will be ahead of the local CA, and specific Sacramento area, economy.

Jobs: I think that unemployment stays in or around the same levels for the majority of 2011. Any increases at the end of the year.

Rental Prices. Decrease in the rental rates slightly.

Interest Rates: Slight increases with plenty of advance warning (hopefully). But the rate will be higher.

Interest Rate Tax Deduction. No idea

Inflation: With interest hikes, inflation will rise alongside it.

Gold. Tales off.

Oil Oil will be strong all year and hit $100/barrel within the first (or second quarter).

Strength of US Dollar. Dollar will remain flat against stronger currencies.

Stock Market. Generally up.

Personal House Purchase I would like to purchase something this year, but it wouldn't be until the 4th quarter or early 2012 - unless if I found a really great deal (unlikely).

Roy said...

314 Belle Ct. EDH was put on SS a few weeks ago. We went to take a look when they had an open house for AGENTS (only). I was thinking to wait for public open house and then give them an offer. However, the house was removed from list in less than one week, without public open house. I checked with my agent and she said it is pending now. Apperantly, something wrong here. I feel agents were given too much power on SS.

Roy said...

I am curious how long can banks hold:

Over 1 million Americans seen losing homes in 2011

husmanen said...

Roy. There is a lot of funny stuff going on behind the scenes. Belle Ct could easily be one of them. But those deals are dicey and fall through many times. You could contact the agent and submit a back-up offer.

Regarding the number of homes coming out in the future. Yes they will but probably over a long long period of time, slowly leaching into the market. In our area of the woods these homes are probably in the upper end, lower end homes already washed through the system.

wimpyVO2max said...

Article at LA Weekly explains why the big banks don't want to modify loans and why they want you to foreclose. They bought bundles of mortgages at a deep discount after the 2008 collapse -- pennies on the dollar. They bought these baskets of mortgages so cheaply that they make a windfall profit even if the house auctions off below market. This is why the banks are doing what they can to make Obama's loan modification program a failure -- there's too much money to be made in foreclosures.

If you don't believe this then how else does one explain how big banks can be foreclosing and report increasing earnings and dividends at the same time?