Placer Not So Lonely Anymore
Back in January of this year, Placer County was the only California county listed by DQNews to suffer a year-over-year price decline. Six months later, Placer has plenty of company in the depreciation club, according to the latest DataQuick numbers for July:
- Placer: -7.07%
- Marin: -6.61%
- San Benito: -6.45%
- Yolo: -6.16%
- El Dorado: -3.93%
- Santa Cruz: -3.43%
- Sacramento: -3.42%
- Sonoma: -1.82%
- Monterey: -1.77%
- San Diego: -1.74%
- Napa: -1.32%
8 comments:
October, it will be easier to list the counties with y-o-y increases.
Norcal Ray, It is interesting how the homebuilders keep building. There is a need for more housing on some level. It is just that buyers are now recognizing the reality (or unreality) of the current price levels.
What is more intersting is that the homebuilders are leading the charge for the price reductions. They have clearly been pulling out obscene profits in the last few years (and frankly, who can blame them, as no one was "forced" to buy a home). The irony is that it will be those very customers from 04-05 that provided the builders with extraordinary profits in the last two years, who will now get burned the worst.
I believe home builders can probably turn out homes for $150/sf and still earn marginal profits. That means your typical 1500 sf home will drop to $225,000 by 2008. That is going to hurt a lot of people, since so many sold for $450,000.
Bakersfield - still up. Maybe I am wrong, maybe we are different. BAHAHAHAHAH
Should we expect a 5% depriciation every year for the next 2years???? If someone wanted to sell there house where would they start????
We walk around the block 4-5 nights a week and keep a running tab of the homes for sale. In the last six months: There are 11 listings on our "route". 10 have had 15% + price reductions (one lady is just stupid and raised her price). Four have expired unsold. Two have pending sales. One is just sitting, two have had further price reductions. Today, one had this: "Bring all offers. The bank would like to see something before they go to auction." This is a great home in beautiful condition with a pool. 2000 sf, $419,000 asking price. A year ago, the average selling price was $265/sf. Today, anything over $200/sf is a non-starter.
Through past historical data we can ascertain that the increase in Trustee sales will be greater than the last two "busts" @ an increase of 981%...most likely we'll be at an increase of 1500% Banks will be giving away nice homes in a few years.
~caddis
Anon, Aug 23, 7:35 AM
You are either overly pessimistic or overly optomistic. Either way, I don't think the banks will give anything away. You may be able to negotiate a good deal, at prices possibly lower than the year 2000 averages, but that will be the lower limit. And with no prospect of price appreciation for 10 years, why would ANYONE want to buy a home and pay TWICE the monthly the cost of renting the same home? It WILL get very interesting.
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